Abstract:Aiming to investigate the uncertainty of parameter sensitivity analysis results at the regional scale due to management measures, climatic conditions, etc., three stations, including Huanghua, Shangqiu and Zhumadian under temperate monsoon climate were selected in different accumulated temperature zones in the Huang-Huai-Hai dry farming region, and extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method was used for analyzing the sensitivity of winter wheat and summer corn parameters in WOFOST model based on the data from agricultural meteorological stations and field sampling, and then the consistency test of the sensitivity ranking of the two crops under different production levels and different climatic conditions were performed. The results showed that the main sensitive parameters of winter wheat yield at the potential production level were the lower threshold temperature for aging of leaves (TBASE), efficiency of conversion into storage (CVO), and the reduction factor of gross assimilation rate at 3℃ (TMNFTB3), while the parameters related to the evapotranspiration correction factor (CFET) and efficiency of conversion into storage (CVO) affected considerably simulated yield under water limited production level. There was no significant difference in the sensitivity parameters of summer maize yield at the two production levels, which involved the reduction factor of gross assimilation rate at 10℃ (TMNFTB10), lightuse efficiency of single leaf as daily mean temperature at 40℃ (EFFTB40), life span of leaves growing at 35℃ (SPAN); the topdown concordance coefficient (TDCC)values of winter wheat and summer maize at different production levels were 0.82 and 0.98, respectively, P values were less than 0.01, indicated that the parameter sensitivity ranking had good consistency; under potential production levels, the TDCC values of winter wheat and summer maize with different climatic conditions were 092 and 098, respectively, and the P values were all less than 001, the TDCC values under the water limited production levels were 0.61 and 0.86, respectively, and the P values were all less than 0.01. The results indicated that the WOFOST model simulated yield had obvious differences in sensitivity among different crop parameters, different production levels had little effect on parameter sensitivity, but it was affected by the degree of water stress, different climatic conditions had a great influence on the sensitivity of parameters, and had different effects on the sensitivity of parameters under different production levels, which were mainly related to the differences in climatic conditions and time and space.