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基于EFAST的不同生產(chǎn)水平下WOFOST模型參數(shù)敏感性分析
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2016YFD0300801)和國家自然科學基金項目(41571217)


Sensitivity Analysis of WOFOST Model Crop Parameters under Different Production Levels Based on EFAST Method
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    摘要:

    為探討參數(shù)敏感性分析結(jié)果在區(qū)域尺度上表現(xiàn)出的不確定性問題,在溫帶季風氣候類型黃淮海平原旱作區(qū)不同積溫區(qū)內(nèi)選取黃驊、商丘和駐馬店3個站點,基于氣象和作物生育期數(shù)據(jù)以及土壤實測數(shù)據(jù),采用EFAST(Extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test)方法,對WOFOST模型冬小麥和夏玉米參數(shù)進行全局敏感性分析,并對2種作物在不同生產(chǎn)水平和不同氣候條件下的參數(shù)敏感性排序進行一致性檢驗。結(jié)果表明:冬小麥產(chǎn)量在潛在生產(chǎn)水平下主要敏感參數(shù)有葉齡的低溫閾值(TBASE)、儲存器官同化物轉(zhuǎn)化效率(CVO)、總同化速率在低溫3℃時的校正因子(TMNFTB3)等,在水分限制生產(chǎn)水平下主要敏感參數(shù)有蒸散速率修正因子(CFET)和儲存器官同化物轉(zhuǎn)化效率(CVO)等;夏玉米在2種生產(chǎn)水平下產(chǎn)量敏感參數(shù)差異不大,主要為總同化速率低溫10℃時的校正因子(TMNFTB10)、每日溫度為40℃時單葉片同化CO2的初始光能利用效率(EFFTB40)、35℃時葉片生命周期(SPAN)等;冬小麥、夏玉米在不同生產(chǎn)水平下的TDCC系數(shù)(Topdown concordance coefficient)分別為0.82和0.98,P均小于0.01,參數(shù)敏感性排序的一致性均較高;冬小麥和夏玉米在不同氣候條件下潛在生產(chǎn)水平TDCC系數(shù)分別為0.92和0.98,P均小于0.01,一致性較高,水分限制生產(chǎn)水平TDCC系數(shù)分別為0.61和0.86,P均小于0.01,一致性較差。WOFOST模型不同作物間參數(shù)敏感性差異明顯,不同生產(chǎn)水平對參數(shù)敏感性的影響較小,但受水分脅迫程度的影響,不同氣候條件對參數(shù)敏感性影響較大,且對不同生產(chǎn)水平下參數(shù)敏感性的影響不同,這主要與不同時空下的氣候條件差異有關(guān)。

    Abstract:

    Aiming to investigate the uncertainty of parameter sensitivity analysis results at the regional scale due to management measures, climatic conditions, etc., three stations, including Huanghua, Shangqiu and Zhumadian under temperate monsoon climate were selected in different accumulated temperature zones in the Huang-Huai-Hai dry farming region, and extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method was used for analyzing the sensitivity of winter wheat and summer corn parameters in WOFOST model based on the data from agricultural meteorological stations and field sampling, and then the consistency test of the sensitivity ranking of the two crops under different production levels and different climatic conditions were performed. The results showed that the main sensitive parameters of winter wheat yield at the potential production level were the lower threshold temperature for aging of leaves (TBASE), efficiency of conversion into storage (CVO), and the reduction factor of gross assimilation rate at 3℃ (TMNFTB3), while the parameters related to the evapotranspiration correction factor (CFET) and efficiency of conversion into storage (CVO) affected considerably simulated yield under water limited production level. There was no significant difference in the sensitivity parameters of summer maize yield at the two production levels, which involved the reduction factor of gross assimilation rate at 10℃ (TMNFTB10), lightuse efficiency of single leaf as daily mean temperature at 40℃ (EFFTB40), life span of leaves growing at 35℃ (SPAN); the topdown concordance coefficient (TDCC)values of winter wheat and summer maize at different production levels were 0.82 and 0.98, respectively, P values were less than 0.01, indicated that the parameter sensitivity ranking had good consistency; under potential production levels, the TDCC values of winter wheat and summer maize with different climatic conditions were 092 and 098, respectively, and the P values were all less than 001, the TDCC values under the water limited production levels were 0.61 and 0.86, respectively, and the P values were all less than 0.01. The results indicated that the WOFOST model simulated yield had obvious differences in sensitivity among different crop parameters, different production levels had little effect on parameter sensitivity, but it was affected by the degree of water stress, different climatic conditions had a great influence on the sensitivity of parameters, and had different effects on the sensitivity of parameters under different production levels, which were mainly related to the differences in climatic conditions and time and space.

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興安,卓志清,趙云澤,李勇,黃元仿.基于EFAST的不同生產(chǎn)水平下WOFOST模型參數(shù)敏感性分析[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2020,51(2):161-171. XING An, ZHUO Zhiqing, ZHAO Yunze, LI Yong, HUANG Yuanfang. Sensitivity Analysis of WOFOST Model Crop Parameters under Different Production Levels Based on EFAST Method[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(2):161-171.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-24
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-02-10
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