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灌區(qū)降水量影響因子分析與集合降水預(yù)測
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國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(51109036、51179032)、教育部高等學(xué)校博士學(xué)科點專項科研基金資助項目(20112325120009)、水利部公益性行業(yè)科研專項經(jīng)費資助項目(201301096)、黑龍江省級領(lǐng)軍人才梯隊后備帶頭人資助項目(500001)、黑龍江省博士后啟動基金資助項目(LBH-Q12147)和黑龍江省自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(E2015024)


Analysis of Influencing Factors of Rainfall in Irrigation Area and Combining Rainfall Forecasting
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    摘要:

    針對降水隨機性較強、影響因素復(fù)雜、單一模型預(yù)測精度低的特點,采用集對分析法,研究降水量與氣象影響因子的關(guān)系。將基于密度參數(shù)的徑向基函數(shù)人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型與灰色模型相結(jié)合,利用信息熵權(quán)重法計算2個單一模型的權(quán)重,構(gòu)建基于信息熵的集合模型(Combing model based on information entropy,IE-CM),用于三江平原友誼農(nóng)場的降水量預(yù)測。研究結(jié)果表明,與單一模型相比,IE-CM模型預(yù)測結(jié)果的決定系數(shù)、平均相對誤差及均方根誤差較單一模型均有所提高,分別為0.99、10.655%和3.03 mm,預(yù)測結(jié)果的合格率為83.3%,均滿足水文預(yù)測要求。

    Abstract:

    Sanjiang Plain is located in the east of Heilongjiang Province, which belongs to the humid climate area. In recent years, Sanjiang Plains natural state has changed due to several factors, such as the warming climate and human activity. Precipitation is one of the major sources of agricultural irrigation in the irrigation area. Due to the strongly stochastic characteristic of precipitation which was influenced by many factors and the lower accuracy of single forecasting model, set pair analysis was introduced which could discuss the relation between rainfall and meteorological factors. In order to improve the training speed of the radial basis function neural network, the K-means algorithm based on density parameter was applied. In this way, the sensitivity of conventional K-means algorithm to initial clustering center was also removed. A combing model based on information entropy (IE-CM) was built, which combined the radial basis function artificial neural network based on density parameter with the grey model, and the weight of each single model was calculated by using the information entropy weight method. The constructed model was applied to forecast the rainfall over the Youyi Farm in Sanjiang Plain. The case study showed that the determination coefficient, average relative error and root mean square error of IE-CM were better than those of single models, which were demonstrated to be 0.99, 10.655% and 3.03 mm, respectively. The qualification rate of the forecasted result was 83.3%, which satisfied the requirements of hydrologic prediction. In conclusion, the built combining model could provide a new method for forecasting precipitation.

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邢貞相,郭皓,付強.灌區(qū)降水量影響因子分析與集合降水預(yù)測[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2015,46(8):97-103,96. Xing Zhenxiang, Guo Hao, Fu Qiang. Analysis of Influencing Factors of Rainfall in Irrigation Area and Combining Rainfall Forecasting[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(8):97-103,96.

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  • 收稿日期:2014-09-24
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-08-10
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