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撓力河流域徑流變化特征與影響因素分析
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國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(51109036、51179032)、黑龍江省自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(E2015024)、水利部公益性行業(yè)科研專項資助項目(201301096)、黑龍江省級領(lǐng)軍人才梯隊后備帶頭人資助項目(500001)、黑龍江省博士后啟動資金資助項目(LBH-Q12147)和東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)研究生科技創(chuàng)新資助項目(yjscx14070、yjscx14071)


Analysis of Runoff Variation and Impacting Factors in Naoli River Basin
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    摘要:

    撓力河作為三江平原最大的流域,其徑流變化過程對三江平原的社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、生態(tài)環(huán)境變化起著至關(guān)重要的作用。為獲取該流域的徑流量變化特征,首先采用線性趨勢分析法和Mann-Kendall趨勢檢驗法對流域4個代表性水文站徑流序列進行趨勢分析,然后采用滑動移除近似熵法(MC-ApEn法)和Mann-Kendall突變檢驗法分別對徑流進行突變檢驗,并對徑流發(fā)生變化的原因進行了探討。結(jié)果表明:撓力河流域上、中、下游徑流量分布不均勻,且同一水文站徑流年際變化較大,不利于撓力河流域水資源的開發(fā)利用;撓力河流域近50a來徑流量呈明顯的減少趨勢,其中寶清站、保安站、菜咀子站徑流下降趨勢明顯;撓力河徑流量在1966年發(fā)生突變,突變后徑流呈明顯的減少趨勢,發(fā)生突變的主要原因是降雨量減少、農(nóng)業(yè)開墾的擴張以及水利工程建設(shè)的日益增多;滑動移除〖JP3〗近似熵法在進行徑流突變分析的過程中,表現(xiàn)出精確度高、抗干擾能力強等特點,是一種適于徑流序列突變檢測的方法。

    Abstract:

    The Naoli River Basin is the largest basin on Sanjiang Plain. Its runoff variation plays a crucial role in the development of social economy and ecological environment change of Sanjiang Plain. In order to obtain the variation characteristics of runoff series, the linear trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the trend of runoff series of four representative hydrological stations in Naoli River Basin. Then the moving cut data-approximate entropy (MC-ApEn method) and Mann-Kendall mutation testing were used to check the mutation characteristics of runoff series. Also the mutation reason of the runoff series was discussed. The results showed that the runoff volume of Naoli River was distributed unevenly and the annual runoff of the same hydrological station had great variation. It was not conducive to the full use of water resources in Naoli River Basin. Runoff series showed obvious reducing trend in the recent 50 years, and the runoff of the Baoqing Station, the Baoan Station and the Caizuizi Station decreased obviously. The runoff mutations of Naoli River occurred in 1966, after the abrupt change, there is an obviously decreasing trend of runoff which is large because of reduced precipitation, increased urban residents water consumption and the growing number of construction of water conservancy. The moving cut data-approximate entropy in the process of runoff mutation analysis showed the characteristics of high precision, strong antiinterference ability and so on and it is a method for detecting the mutations of nonlinear time series.

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邢貞相,劉美鑫,付 強,宮興龍,葛宇生.撓力河流域徑流變化特征與影響因素分析[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2015,46(9):178-187. Xing Zhenxiang, Liu Meixin, Fu Qiang, Gong Xinglong, Ge Yusheng. Analysis of Runoff Variation and Impacting Factors in Naoli River Basin[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(9):178-187.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-04-25
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-09-10
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