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基于氣溫和 DC - BP - NN 的河西走廊月度 ETo 估算模型
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Monthly Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Estimation Model Based on Air Temperature and DC-BP-NN in Hexi Corridor
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    摘要:

    針對(duì)參考作物蒸散量(Reference crop evapotranspiration,ETo)估算模型中,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)估算模型——FAO Penman-Monteith(FAO-PM)模型需要充分的氣象數(shù)據(jù),而基于氣溫的估算模型精度不足的問題,參考FAO-PM模型結(jié)構(gòu),基于氣溫和月序數(shù),融合分治法(Divide and conquer,DC)和誤差反向傳播神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(Back propagation neural network,BP-NN),提出了一種采用DC-BP-NN的月度ETo估算模型;以FAO-PM模型計(jì)算的ETo為標(biāo)準(zhǔn),利用河西走廊酒泉?dú)庀笳?958年1月—2013年9月的月度氣象數(shù)據(jù),將DC-BP-NN模型與其余6種基于氣溫的ETo估算模型(Blaney-Criddle模型、Hargreaves-Samani模型、2種改進(jìn)的Hargreaves-Samani模型、BP-NN模型、BP-NN1模型)進(jìn)行對(duì)比。結(jié)果表明,DC-BP-NN模型的估算精度(均方根誤差5.99 mm/月,平均偏差0.99 mm/月,平均絕對(duì)百分誤差7.18%,決定系數(shù)0.988 6)優(yōu)于其余6種ETo估算模型,該模型可以用于河西走廊農(nóng)田氣象數(shù)據(jù)不充分條件下的月度ETo估算。

    Abstract:

    As the standard method for estimating reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), FAO Penman- Monteith (FAO-PM) model incorporates both the thermodynamic aspect and the aerodynamic aspect of evapotranspiration. The model needs complete agricultural meteorological data to estimate ETo, which is considered to be a difficult task in many locations of Hexi Corridor. Meanwhile, the accuracy of the temperature-based models is insufficient. In order to solve these problems, a monthly ETo estimation model (DC-BP-NN) was proposed, which integrated air-temperature, divide and conquer (DC) method and back propagation neural network (BP-NN) with the structure of FAO-PM model. The model consisted of two BP-NN models: the radiation BP-NN model and the aerodynamic BP-NN model. In the experiments, the data was from Jiuquan Weather Station in Hexi Corridor. The reference standard was obtained by FAO-PM model. The results showed that DC-BP-NN model was superior to the other six ETo estimation models, including Blaney-Criddle model, Hargreaves-Samani model, two improved Hargreaves-Samani models, BP-NN model and BP-NN1 model (BP-NN model was based on air temperature and monthly ordinal number), with average root mean square error of 5.99 mm/month, mean bias error of 0.99 mm/month, mean absolute percentage error of 7.18% and determination coefficient of 0.988 6. Therefore, the DC-BP-NN model can be used for estimating monthly ETo in Hexi Corridor with insufficient meteorological data.

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陳晟,李淼,陳雷,楊振新,孫凱.基于氣溫和 DC - BP - NN 的河西走廊月度 ETo 估算模型[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2015,46(12):140-147. Chen Sheng, Li Miao, Chen Lei, Yang Zhenxin, Sun Kai. Monthly Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Estimation Model Based on Air Temperature and DC-BP-NN in Hexi Corridor[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(12):140-147.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-04-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-12-10
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