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基于EMD和ELM的工廠化育苗水溫組合預(yù)測模型
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(61471133、61571444、61473331)、“十二五”國家科技支撐計劃項目(2012BAD35B07)、廣東省科技計劃項目(2013B090500127、2013B021600014、2015A070709015、2015A020209171)、廣東省自然科學(xué)基金項目(S2013010014629、2014A030307049)和廣東海洋大學(xué)創(chuàng)新強校工程項目(GDOU2014050227)


Combined Prediction Model of Water Temperature in Industrialized Cultivation Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine
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    摘要:

    針對南美白對蝦工廠化育苗水溫時序數(shù)據(jù)存在非線性、非平穩(wěn)等特點,采用傳統(tǒng)單項預(yù)測方法預(yù)測精度低、魯棒性差等問題,提出基于經(jīng)驗?zāi)B(tài)分解(EMD)、相空間重構(gòu)和極限學(xué)習(xí)機(ELM)的非線性組合預(yù)測模型。在建模過程中,采用EMD方法將工廠化育苗水溫原始時序數(shù)據(jù)多尺度分解為一系列固有模態(tài)分量(IMF),并對各分量進(jìn)行相空間重構(gòu),在相空間中對ELM訓(xùn)練建模,分別對各IMF序列進(jìn)行預(yù)測,將各分量預(yù)測結(jié)果進(jìn)行疊加重構(gòu)得到原始水溫序列的預(yù)測值。將該模型應(yīng)用于廣東省湛江市南美白對蝦工廠化育苗水溫預(yù)測中,結(jié)果表明,該模型取得了較好預(yù)測效果。與BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)LSSVR和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)ELM等單項預(yù)測模型對比分析,模型評價指標(biāo)MAPE、RMSE和MAE分別為0.0158、0.0329和0.0962,均表明提出的組合模型具有較高預(yù)測精度和泛化性能,為南美白對蝦工廠化育苗水溫調(diào)控管理提供了一種有效的技術(shù)支持。

    Abstract:

    Since the sequence data of water temperature in industrialized Litopenaeus vannamei breeding is somehow non-linear, unsteady, and such problems like lower precision in the predicting results, low robustness will appear when utilizing the traditional single item predicting method, a combined non-linear prediction model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), phase space reconstruction and extreme learning machine (ELM) was proposed. In modeling, the EMD method was adopted to decompose the original time sequence data of water temperature in industrialized Litopenaeus vannamei breeding into a series of intrinsic mode function (IMF), and reconstruct the phase space of each component, set models of ELM training in phase space, predict each IMF sequence, and then combine and reconstruct the predicted values of each component to get the predicted value of original water temperature sequence. EMD—ELM was tested and compared with other algorithms by applying it to predict water temperature in industrialized Litopenaeus vannamei breeding pond of Zhanjiang City. The experimental results showed that the proposed combination prediction model of EMD—ELM had better prediction effect than the standard extreme learning machine (ELM), least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) and BP neural network methods. And the relative mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) between the EMD—ELM and standard LSSVR models were 62.82%、45.62% and 42.77%, respectively, under the same experimental conditions. The relative MAPE, RMSE and MAE between the EMD—ELM and standard ELM models were 34.44%、28.94% and 25.37%, respectively. The relative MAPE, RMSE and MAE between the EMD—ELM and BPNN models were 77.0%、60.83% and 54.77%, respectively. It was obvious that the EMD—ELM had high forecast accuracy and generalization ability. The research results provided a new effective technical support for water temperature management and control in the industrialized cultivation of Litopenaeus vannamei.

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徐龍琴,張軍,李乾川,劉雙印,李道亮.基于EMD和ELM的工廠化育苗水溫組合預(yù)測模型[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2016,47(4):265-271,308. Xu Longqin, Zhang Jun, Li Qianchuan, Liu Shuangyin, Li Daoliang. Combined Prediction Model of Water Temperature in Industrialized Cultivation Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(4):265-271,308.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-11-01
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-04-10
  • 出版日期: 2016-04-10
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