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一種優(yōu)化迭代權(quán)因子的組合代理模型構(gòu)建方法
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(51275141、51305112)和浙江省自然科學(xué)基金項目(LY14E050026)


Optimal Iterative Weight Factors Method for Constructing Ensemble of Surrogate Model
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    摘要:

    代理模型常被用來取代復(fù)雜工程問題中的仿真模型。為了提高代理模型的效率、精度和魯棒性,提出一種優(yōu)化迭代權(quán)因子的組合代理模型構(gòu)建方法。首先采用留一交叉驗證策略和預(yù)測平方和P來計算初始權(quán)因子,然后對權(quán)因子進行迭代,并在每次迭代的過程中對其進行更新,直至最終得到的組合代理模型達到理想的預(yù)測精度。為了驗證該方法的有效性,對3個基準(zhǔn)問題和1個工程實例構(gòu)建了3種元模型和5種組合代理模型,并從效率、精度和魯棒性等方面進行性能比較。結(jié)果表明本文所提出的方法不僅能得到高精度和高魯棒性的代理模型,而且能有效縮短模型的構(gòu)建時間。

    Abstract:

    Surrogate models are often used to replace expensive simulation models in complicated engineering problems. The common practice is to construct multiple metamodels based on a common training data set, evaluate the accuracy, and then use only a single model perceived as the best while discarding the rest. This practice has some shortcomings as it does not take full advantage of the resources devoted to constructing different metamodels and increases the risk of adopting an inappropriate model. However, ensemble technique is an effective way to make up for the shortfalls of traditional strategy. In order to improve the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of the surrogate model, an optimal iterative weight factors method for constructing ensemble of surrogate model was proposed. At first, the leaveoneout cross validation strategy and PRESS criterion were presented to calculate initial weight factors. Then, an iterative process for the weight factors was conducted and at the same time the weight factors were updated until an ideal prediction accuracy of the ultimate ensemble of surrogate model was reached. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, three metamodels and five ensembles of surrogate model for three benchmark problems and an engineering problem were constructed to compare their performances of efficiency, accuracy and robustness. Results show that the proposed method can not only get a higher accuracy and robustness surrogate, but also shorten the time of constructing surrogate model evidently.

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李志華,曾慧毅,聶 超,劉婷婷.一種優(yōu)化迭代權(quán)因子的組合代理模型構(gòu)建方法[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2016,47(7):391-397. Li Zhihua, Zeng Huiyi, Nie Chao, Liu Tingting. Optimal Iterative Weight Factors Method for Constructing Ensemble of Surrogate Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(7):391-397.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-12-19
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-07-10
  • 出版日期: 2016-07-10