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輻射模型不同率定方法總輻射數(shù)據(jù)缺失插補(bǔ)比較
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國(guó)家高技術(shù)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃(863計(jì)劃)項(xiàng)目(2011AA100504)和教育部高等學(xué)校創(chuàng)新引智計(jì)劃(111計(jì)劃)項(xiàng)目(B12007)


Comparison of Different Calibration Methods on Angstrom—Presscott Model for Missing Data Interpolation
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    摘要:

    在長(zhǎng)期連續(xù)觀(guān)測(cè)中,總輻射(Rs)的觀(guān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)通常有不同程度的缺失?;谌照諘r(shí)數(shù)的Angstrom—Presscott(A—P)模型是一種廣泛應(yīng)用且精度較高的總輻射估算經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)P?。選取A—P模型3種不同參數(shù)率定方法(M1:每年率定,M2:分月率定,M3:多年率定),基于6個(gè)輻射站的輻射資料,對(duì)年平均Rs、年平均ET0、參數(shù)取值和插補(bǔ)精度進(jìn)行了比較。t檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,3種方法下A—P模型在昌都站數(shù)據(jù)插補(bǔ)無(wú)明顯差異,Rs年際變化大是造成該站Rs模擬不準(zhǔn)的主要原因。在宜昌和南寧站,M1方法進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)插補(bǔ)精度高于其他方法,M1方法Rs 缺失天數(shù)分別為40d和70d時(shí),兩站計(jì)算的參考作物蒸發(fā)蒸騰量(ET0)與實(shí)測(cè)Rs計(jì)算的ET0相比,t檢驗(yàn)無(wú)明顯差異。M2與M3相比精度稍高,但在昆明、贛州、杭州和南寧站冬季精度更高且6—8 月份精度更低。與1990年以前相比,各站點(diǎn)A—P模型參數(shù)a在1990年以后有明顯上升,工業(yè)污染導(dǎo)致氣溶膠增加是原因之一。A—P模型在極端年份率定精度不高,在極端炎熱氣候年份,應(yīng)用該模型用于灌溉預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)會(huì)低估作物耗水量,可能會(huì)給決策帶來(lái)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。該研究結(jié)果可用于A—P模型的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和提高總輻射時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)缺失情況下的插補(bǔ)精度。

    Abstract:

    In the long-term continuous observation, observed data of global solar radiation (Rs) usually has different degrees of missing. Angstrom—Presscott (A—P) model, which was based on sunshine hours, is a widely used empirical model that has high precision. Three different parameters calibrated methods for A—P model were chosen, which were annually (M1), monthly (M2) and yearly (M3) calibrated by only one time. Radiation data from six radiation stations were used, which were Changdu, Yichang, Kunming, Ganzhou, Hangzhou and Nanning stations. Annual average Rs, annual average reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and parameter selection were compared by the three methods, at last, three stations were selected for interpolation accuracy evaluation. The results were as follow: t test results showed that no difference among the three methods in use of data interpolation in Changdu station, severe changes of Rs inter annual was the main reason for poor accuracy. The accuracy of M1 method for data interpolation was higher than those of other methods in Yichang and Nanning stations. When missing data were 40d and 70d, there were no difference between M1 method calibrated and measured values of Rs in calculating ET0, but when the missing data was over 20d, M2 and M3 methods showed significant difference between estimated and measured Rs, its influence on calculating ET0 was the same. Compared with the calibration method for many years, the monthly calibrated method had a little higher precision in estimating Rs, with higher precision in winter and lower precision from June to August in Ganzhou, Hangzhou, Kunming and Nanning stations. Compared with the results before 1990, the parameter a of A—P model was increased dramatically in all stations after 1990, industrial pollution led to an increased aerosol was one of main reasons. In extremely hot year, the accuracy of A—P model was lower than that in normal year, application of the model to irrigation forecast would underestimate crop water consumption, which may bring risk for decisionmaking. The results can be used in A—P model for risk assessment and improving the total radiation time series data of the interpolation precision of missing cases.

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吳立峰,劉惠英,張富倉(cāng).輻射模型不同率定方法總輻射數(shù)據(jù)缺失插補(bǔ)比較[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2016,47(10):172-180. Wu Lifeng, Liu Huiying, Zhang Fucang. Comparison of Different Calibration Methods on Angstrom—Presscott Model for Missing Data Interpolation[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(10):172-180.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-01-30
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  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2016-10-10
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