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松花江流域極端降雨變化對流域輸沙量的影響
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41571263)


Effects of Precipitation Extremes Change on Sediment Load in Songhua River Basin
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    摘要:

    基于松花江流域及其周邊共43個氣象站點1960—2014年逐日降雨數(shù)據(jù)及佳木斯水文站輸沙量數(shù)據(jù),采用Mann-Kendall非參數(shù)趨勢分析方法、小波周期性分析和雙累積曲線法,分析了流域內(nèi)7個極端降雨指數(shù)和輸沙量的動態(tài)變化趨勢,在此基礎(chǔ)上定量評估了流域極端降雨變化對輸沙量的影響。結(jié)果表明:1960—2014年間,松花江流域7個極端降雨指數(shù)(最大1d降雨量(RX1day)、連續(xù)5d最大降雨量(RX5day)、降雨強度指數(shù)(SDII)、大于95%分位值強降雨量(P95pTOT)、大雨量(HP)、暴雨量(RSP)和汛期降雨量(FSPTOT))皆呈階段性波動變化,存在16~20a的大周期和5~6a的小周期變化特征,但近55a各極端降雨指數(shù)整體上呈不顯著的變化趨勢;期間佳木斯水文站輸沙量的變化趨勢與7個極端降雨指數(shù)的變化趨勢類似。松花江流域各極端降雨指數(shù)與輸沙量均存在極顯著相關(guān)性(p<0.01),其中RX5day、P95pTOT與輸沙量的相關(guān)性最顯著。雙累積曲線分析顯示,流域輸沙量與各極端降雨指數(shù)關(guān)系的突變點均發(fā)生在1977年。與基準期(1960—1977年)相比,1978—2014年松花江流域各極端降雨指數(shù)對輸沙量變化的影響在3.09%~15.24%之間,其中SDII變化對輸沙量的影響最大(15.24%),其次是FSPTOT(14.81%)和RX5day(14.34%)。

    Abstract:

    Study on the effects of extreme precipitation events on runoff and sediment load not only can reveal the mechanism of runoff and sediment, but also provide important scientific support for basin disaster warning. Currently, there is limited information on the effects of extremes precipitation events on river sediment load. Thus, Songhua River Basin (SRB), located in the northeast of China was selected as study area, and daily precipitation data from 43 meteorological stations within and surrounding the SRB and sediment load from Kiamusze hydrologic station during 1960—2014 were collected. Seven extreme precipitation indices, including maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day), maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), simple daily intensity index (SDII), strong rainfall more than 95% points value (P95pTOT), heavy precipitation (HP), rainstorm precipitation (RSP) and flood season precipitation (FSPTOT)) were chosen to quantify precipitation extremes. The Mann-Kendall’s non-parametric trend analysis method and wavelet periodic analysis method were used to analyze the dynamic change of precipitation extremes and sediment load. Double mass curve method was used to assess the effect of extreme precipitation events on sediment load change. The results showed as follows: there was no significant change trend of the seven precipitation extreme indices during 1960—2014;while there existed 16~20a main period and 5~6a minor period. Meanwhile, the change trend of sediment load in Kiamusze hydrologic station was similar with the precipitation extremes. The precipitation extreme indices had highly significant correlation with sediment load (p<0.01) in the SRB, among which correction between sediment load and RX5day and P95pTOT was the most significant. The abrupt change by double mass curve method indicated that the abrupt change point between sediment load and each extreme precipitation index occurred in 1977. Compared with the baseline period in 1960—1977, the effects of precipitation extreme indices on the sediment load were ranged from 3.09% to 15.24% in 1978—2014, in which the effect of SDII was the highest with 15.24%, followed by FSPTOT with 14.81% and RX5day with 14.34%. These findings would provide useful information for forecasting sediment disaster and taking measures in conserving soil and water in the SRB.

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鐘科元,鄭粉莉,吳紅艷,覃超.松花江流域極端降雨變化對流域輸沙量的影響[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2017,48(8):245-252,321. ZHONG Keyuan, ZHENG Fenli, WU Hongyan, QIN Chao. Effects of Precipitation Extremes Change on Sediment Load in Songhua River Basin[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(8):245-252,321.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-12-21
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-08-10
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