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葡萄冷鏈品質(zhì)的時(shí)間-溫度指示器模糊推理預(yù)測(cè)
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國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(31371538)和杭州科技發(fā)展計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(20140432B30)


Time-Temperature Indicator Fuzzy Reasoning Prediction for Grape Cold Chain Quality Sensing
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    摘要:

    為了驗(yàn)證和評(píng)價(jià)變溫環(huán)境下時(shí)間-溫度指示器(TTI)響應(yīng)值預(yù)測(cè)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品品質(zhì)的適用性,構(gòu)建了TTI模糊推理預(yù)測(cè)方法。TTI模糊推理預(yù)測(cè)是依據(jù)擬合程度高的恒溫試驗(yàn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品品質(zhì)實(shí)際變化經(jīng)驗(yàn)方程,以及盡可能準(zhǔn)確描述任意有效溫度與恒溫溫度之間關(guān)系的隸屬度函數(shù)構(gòu)建預(yù)測(cè)模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)任意有效溫度下農(nóng)產(chǎn)品品質(zhì)預(yù)測(cè)值計(jì)算。同時(shí)設(shè)置了高低溫變溫試驗(yàn)?zāi)M鮮食葡萄冷鏈物流溫度特征,用上述方法對(duì)Vitsab M25-2、OnVu TTI預(yù)測(cè)玫瑰香葡萄硬度進(jìn)行了參數(shù)估計(jì)與模型建立,并與TTI動(dòng)力學(xué)預(yù)測(cè)值進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。結(jié)果表明,面向鮮食葡萄品質(zhì)感知的TTI模糊推理預(yù)測(cè)在低溫下相對(duì)于TTI動(dòng)力學(xué)預(yù)測(cè)有所改進(jìn),平均相對(duì)偏差分別減小了6.03個(gè)百分點(diǎn)和2.70個(gè)百分點(diǎn);在高溫下沒有改進(jìn)。因此在低溫下可選擇模糊推理預(yù)測(cè)方法。

    Abstract:

    With the aim to validate and accurately evaluate the applicability of time-temperature indicator (TTI) application at variable temperatures, a prediction method based on the fuzzy reasoning was built. The method was on the basis of quality experience equation of the monitored products at constant temperature experiment, which could be chosen from polynomial equation, the n-th reaction kinetic equations or other equations according to the fitting coefficients. The key of this method was to build exact membership functions between arbitrate effective temperature and the constant temperature in order to obtain the predicted value at arbitrate effective temperature. The method was analyzed about Muscat Hamburg grape, Vitsab M25-2 and OnVu TTI through two fluctuant temperature experiments simulating temperature characteristics of table grape cold chain logistics. Triangle membership function was chosen in the prediction based on the fuzzy reasoning. The table grape quality predicted values based on the fuzzy reasoning and the kinetics model were compared with the actual measured values. Results showed that the TTI prediction method based on fuzzy reasoning at low fluctuant temperature made improvements (6.03 percentage points and 2.70 percentage points) vs TTI prediction method based on the reaction kinetics equations, whereas made no improvements at high fluctuant temperature. Therefore, TTI prediction method based on fuzzy reasoning could be chosen at low temperature based on the principle of merit.

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張小栓,孫格格,楊林,郭永洪,馬常陽(yáng).葡萄冷鏈品質(zhì)的時(shí)間-溫度指示器模糊推理預(yù)測(cè)[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2017,48(8):315-321. ZHANG Xiaoshuan, SUN Gege, YANG Lin, GUO Yonghong, MA Changyang. Time-Temperature Indicator Fuzzy Reasoning Prediction for Grape Cold Chain Quality Sensing[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(8):315-321.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-12-05
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-08-10
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