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融合ARIMA模型和GAWNN的溶解氧含量預測方法
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國家國際科技合作專項(2015DFA00530)、山東省重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2016CYJS03A02)和國家科學自然基金項目(61471133)


Hybrid Model of ARIMA Model and GAWNN for Dissolved Oxygen Content Prediction
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    摘要:

    針對河流污染治理、水源管理,提出了融合差分自回歸滑動平均ARIMA模型和遺傳算法優(yōu)化的小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)相結(jié)合的河流水質(zhì)預測方法。將采集的河流水質(zhì)參數(shù)時間序列數(shù)據(jù),分解為線性和非線性序列,線性數(shù)據(jù)使用ARIMA模型預測,使用最小二乘法完成了ARIMA模型參數(shù)估計。對于經(jīng)過ARIMA模型處理的非線性殘差數(shù)據(jù)、預測值與原始溶解氧序列之間的線性和非線性關(guān)系,采用小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(WNN)獲得預測值,并采用遺傳算法的選擇、交叉、變異等操作優(yōu)化網(wǎng)絡(luò)參數(shù),比傳統(tǒng)WNN模型預測精度顯著提高。ARIMA模型、小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、遺傳算法優(yōu)化小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(GAWNN)和未經(jīng)遺傳算法優(yōu)化的組合模型預測平均絕對誤差分別為0.29%、0.39%、0.26%、0.24%,提出的組合模型預測結(jié)果平均絕對誤差約0.19%且為最小。結(jié)果表明,該組合模型優(yōu)于單個模型和傳統(tǒng)組合模型的預測結(jié)果。

    Abstract:

    In view of the river pollution control and water management, this study put forward a hybrid model of autoregressive moving average (ARIMA ) model and wavelet neural network combined with genetic algorithm, to predict the river water quality. For time series data of water quality parameters, it includes linear and nonlinear sequences. So using the least square method to estimate the ARIMA model parameters, ARIMA model was used to predict linear data. For the nonlinear relationship among the residual error data, prediction result, and original data, using genetic algorithm to optimize wavelet neural network (WNN) parameters, including selection, crossover and mutation operation, WNN was applied to obtain predicted data, which increased the traditional WNN prediction precision significantly. Experimental results show that the mean absolute error of ARIMA model, wavelet neural network ,genetic algorithm optimized wavelet neural network(GAWNN), or the hybrid model without genetic algorithm optimized model prediction results are 0.29%, 0.39%, 0.26% and 0.24% respectively. The mean absolute error of the combined model prediction is about 0.19%, which is the minimum, indicating that the prediction result is better than that of single model and the hybrid model without genetic algorithm optimized.

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吳靜,李振波,朱玲,李晨.融合ARIMA模型和GAWNN的溶解氧含量預測方法[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2017,48(s1):205-210, 204. WU Jing, LI Zhenbo, ZHU Ling, LI Chen. Hybrid Model of ARIMA Model and GAWNN for Dissolved Oxygen Content Prediction[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(s1):205-210, 204.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-07-10
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-12-10
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