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基于多智能體模型的銀川平原土地利用情景模擬
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Scenario Simulation of Land Use in Yinchuan Plain Based on Multi-agent Model
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    摘要:

    基于多智能體模型研究了土地利用變化的模擬問(wèn)題。以銀川平原為例,以2002年和2014年的遙感影像為基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)源,在對(duì)2002—2014年土地利用變化特征及其驅(qū)動(dòng)因素分析的基礎(chǔ)上,選取了政府、農(nóng)戶、城鎮(zhèn)居民3種智能體,結(jié)合經(jīng)分析選取的自然因素、社會(huì)因素和經(jīng)濟(jì)因素3方面5個(gè)主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力因素對(duì)3種智能體的決策行為進(jìn)行逐個(gè)分析,構(gòu)建多智能體的行為規(guī)則,建立了基于多智能體模型的土地利用空間格局模擬模型。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)研究區(qū)自然稟賦情景、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景、基本農(nóng)田保護(hù)情景下的土地利用空間格局進(jìn)行了模擬。結(jié)果表明,基于多智能體的土地利用模型能夠較好地模擬復(fù)雜土地利用變化;在影響土地利用變化的各因素中,政策性因素對(duì)區(qū)域土地利用變化影響較為明顯。

    Abstract:

    The simulation of land use change was studied based on multi-agent model. This paper took Yinchuan Plain as a case study and chose the remote sensing images in 2002 and 2014 as data source. Based on the analysis of the land use pattern evolution and its driving actors, three kinds of agents: government, farmers and urban residents were selected as agents. The decision behavior of these three agents were analyzed combined with 5 factors selected from natural factors, social factors and economic factors and behavior rules of multi-agent were built. Finally, the basic data which were processed by ArcGIS, was imported into the model, and the simulation model of land use spatial pattern based on multi-agent model was established. Furthermore, in order to reveal the response relationship between land use pattern evolution and driving force factors, the study simulated land use pattern under three scenarios: natural increase scenario, rapid social economic development scenario, and basic farmland protection scenario. The simulation results can provide decision support for scientific planning and utilization of land in the study area.

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艾東,王朔,張榮群,王大海.基于多智能體模型的銀川平原土地利用情景模擬[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2017,48(s1):262-270. AI Dong, WANG Shuo, ZHANG Rongqun, WANG Dahai. Scenario Simulation of Land Use in Yinchuan Plain Based on Multi-agent Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(s1):262-270.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-07-10
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-12-10
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