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基于XGBoost-ANN的城市綠地凈碳交換模擬與特征響應(yīng)
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國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2017YFC0504400、2017YFC0504406)和中央高?;究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金項(xiàng)目(2015ZCQ-SB-02)


Simulation of NEE and Characterization of Urban Green-land Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Controls Based on XGBoost-ANN
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    摘要:

    為分析城市綠地凈生態(tài)系統(tǒng)碳交換(Net ecosystem exchange,NEE)對(duì)環(huán)境因子的響應(yīng),利用渦度相關(guān)法測(cè)量了2013—2016年生長(zhǎng)季白天的NEE數(shù)據(jù),使用XGBoost以及ANN模型對(duì)NEE進(jìn)行模擬和分析,并通過(guò)決定系數(shù)(R2)、平均絕對(duì)誤差(MAE)、均方根誤差(RMSE)和一致性系數(shù)(IA)4個(gè)指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)模擬精度。結(jié)果表明,當(dāng)輸入因子為光合有效輻射(PAR)、飽和水汽壓差(VPD)、空氣溫度(Ta)、相對(duì)濕度(RH)、土壤溫度(Ts)、風(fēng)速(WS)、10cm處土壤含水率(VWC10)時(shí),模擬效果達(dá)到最優(yōu)。其訓(xùn)練集精度R2為0.712,RMSE為4.394μmol/(m2·s),MAE為3.129μmol/(m2·s),IA為0.911;測(cè)試集精度R2為0.748,RMSE為4.253μmol/(m2·s),MAE為2.971μmol/(m2·s),IA為0.920。在考慮因子間相互作用后,環(huán)境因子對(duì)NEE的重要性排序從大到小依次為PAR、VPD、Ta、RH、Ts、WS、VWC10;就單環(huán)境因子而言,對(duì)NEE的重要性由大到小依次為Ta、Ts、RH。通過(guò)計(jì)算生態(tài)系統(tǒng)凈生產(chǎn)力(Net ecosystem productivity,NEP,即-NEE)對(duì)主要環(huán)境因子(PAR、VPD、Ta)的偏導(dǎo)數(shù)可知,生態(tài)系統(tǒng)光合作用表觀量子效率最大值為0.087,并且當(dāng)PAR大于1200μmol/(m2·s)時(shí),其不再是影響光合作用的主要因素;VPD偏導(dǎo)數(shù)的變化趨勢(shì)表明,VPD對(duì)植物光合作用的影響以抑制性為主,當(dāng)VPD過(guò)大時(shí),偏導(dǎo)數(shù)趨近于0,此時(shí)植物葉片氣孔閉合,抑制光合作用;Ta偏導(dǎo)數(shù)的變化趨勢(shì)說(shuō)明,隨著溫度的升高,光合作用速率逐漸大于呼吸作用的速率。研究表明,基于XGBoost與ANN模型能夠更為精確地模擬NEE動(dòng)態(tài),在相關(guān)環(huán)境因子中,PAR、VPD、Ta是影響NEE變化的主導(dǎo)因子,NEE對(duì)主要影響因子的生態(tài)特征響應(yīng)趨勢(shì)可為理解碳循環(huán)關(guān)鍵過(guò)程提供參考。

    Abstract:

    Aiming to analyze the responses of urban greenland’s net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to the climatic controls and provide theoretical and technical support for carbon cycle simulation between land and atmosphere. In growing season, halfhourly daytime NEE based on eddy covariance flux data collected from 2013 to 2016 were simulated by XGBoost and back propagation artificial neural network (ANN) model. Moreover, the accuracy of model was evaluated by using the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and index of agreement (IA). The experimental results showed that ANN model presented that seven input variables (photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH), soil temperature (Ts), wind speed (WS) and volumetric water content at 10cm depth) performed best, yielding R2 of 0.712, RMSE of 4.394μmol/(m2·s), MAE of 3.129μmol/(m2·s) and IA of 0.911 on train dataset, and R2 of 0.748, RMSE of 4.253μmol/(m2·s), MAE of 2.971μmol/(m2·s) and IA of 0.920 on test dataset. After considering the function and interaction among the factors, the importance score of each environmental factor was decreased in the following order: PAR, VPD, Ta, RH, Ts, WS and VWC10, otherwise Ts would be more important than RH. In particularly, after calculating the numerical partial derivatives of main climatic controls for each halfhourly point, the numerical partial derivatives of PAR showed the ecosystem quantum yield with the value of 0.087, and it also indicated that PAR was no longer a main impact factor when value was greater than 1200μmol/(m2·s). Besides, the numerical partial derivatives of VPD expressed that VPD could mainly inhibit the photosynthesis, and the higher VPD aggravated the inhibition of photosynthesis by affecting photosynthetic rate. Furthermore, the numerical partial derivatives of Ta demonstrated that the photosynthetic rate was increased bit by bit and made the photosynthetic rate overpass respiration rate gradually. According to the result, PAR, VPD and Ta played an important role in controlling the NEE of urban greenland ecosystem. Also, XGBoost and ANN could be capable in capturing NEE dynamics and simulating the NEE with high accuracy. Meanwhile, the present result provided instant insight in underlying ecosystem physiology.

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齊建東,黃金澤,賈昕.基于XGBoost-ANN的城市綠地凈碳交換模擬與特征響應(yīng)[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2019,50(5):269-278. QI Jiandong, HUANG Jinze, JIA Xin. Simulation of NEE and Characterization of Urban Green-land Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Controls Based on XGBoost-ANN[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(5):269-278.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-02-21
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-05-10
  • 出版日期: 2019-05-10
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