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基于多源遙感數(shù)據(jù)和隨機森林的綜合旱情指標構建
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地理國情監(jiān)測國家測繪地理信息局重點實驗室開放基金項目(2017NGCM04)、國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2016YFD0800902)、湖北省技術創(chuàng)新專項(重大項目)(2017ABA157)和國家自然科學基金項目(41701504)


Construction of Integrated Drought Condition Index Based on Multi-sensor Remote Sensing and Random Forest
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    摘要:

    利用隨機森林方法(Random forest, RF)集成多源遙感數(shù)據(jù),構建一種多因子集成的旱情狀態(tài)指數(shù)(Integrated drought condition index, IDCI-RF),利用該指數(shù)對我國北部區(qū)域旱情狀態(tài)進行評估。首先基于相關性分析方法選取旱情因子,然后利用RF回歸方法構建IDCI-RF指數(shù),并通過與Cubist和Bagging方法對比檢驗RF算法的擬合效果,最后對IDCI-RF指數(shù)的空間旱情監(jiān)測精度進行驗證。試驗結果表明,所提出的IDCI-RF與實測SPEI-3的平均決定系數(shù)R2為0.54~0.68,優(yōu)于Cubist和Bagging方法;IDCI-RF指數(shù)在研究區(qū)各省份均能較好地擬合實測指數(shù),R2均在0.7以上;大部分站點的IDCI-RF變化規(guī)律與實測SPEI-3保持一致;由IDCI-RF監(jiān)測圖反映的研究區(qū)旱情狀態(tài)與實測SPEI-3分布特征吻合度較高,表明IDCI-RF指數(shù)在實際大范圍旱情監(jiān)測中具有較大的應用潛力。

    Abstract:

    Drought is a complex natural hazard. A remote sensingbased drought index, the integrated drought condition index (IDCI-RF) for monitoring agricultural drought, by integrating the droughtrelated information based on random forest (RF) regression technique was proposed. The optimal droughtrelated factors over different time periods were selected through correlation analyses between 17 remote sensing drought indices and the 3month standardized precipitationevapotranspiration index (SPEI-3).Based on the RF regression method, the IDCI-RF index which considered land cover data, climate classification information, digital elevation data and multisource droughtrelated factors comprehensively was established. The determination coefficients, RMSE and MAE values were calculated between the 3month SPEI and the IDCI which was derived from the RF, Cubist and Bagging model, respectively. Results showed that compared with other two ensemble methods, IDCI-RF produced higher correlation coefficient values with in situ variables and all the determination coefficients varied between 0.54 and 0.68. Additionally, regression analyses were performed between the IDCI-RF and the in situ reference data to further evaluate the capability of regional drought condition monitoring and analyses were performed in seven main provinces of the study area. Results showed that the IDCI-RF was agreed well with the SPEI-3 in different provinces, and all the determination coefficients were above 0.7. The yearly IDCI-RF variations in 21 representative meteorological sites were compared with that of the in situ drought indices to evaluate the temporal drought monitoring capability of this index. Results showed that the IDCI-RF exhibited consistent variations with the in situ reference data at the regional scales in most cases. The spatial changes in the IDCI-RF maps were also compared with the changes in the in situ reference data at the meteorological sites to assess the IDCI-RF performance in monitoring shortterm drought conditions. Results showed that the IDCI-RF maps basically showed a similar spatial pattern with the in situ reference data. The practical application of IDCI-RF demonstrated that it can provide accurate and detailed drought condition and IDCI-RF method can be effectively used for regional agricultural drought monitoring.

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董婷,任東,邵攀,孟令奎.基于多源遙感數(shù)據(jù)和隨機森林的綜合旱情指標構建[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2019,50(8):200-212. DONG Ting, REN Dong, SHAO Pan, MENG Lingkui. Construction of Integrated Drought Condition Index Based on Multi-sensor Remote Sensing and Random Forest[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(8):200-212.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-12-27
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-08-10
  • 出版日期: 2019-08-10
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