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格點天氣預報數(shù)據(jù)與機理模型耦合的冬小麥干旱預警方法
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2017YFC1502402)和國家自然科學基金項目(41705095)


Drought Early Warning of Winter Wheat Based on Soil Water Dynamic Model Coupled with Grid Weather Forecast Data
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    摘要:

    為了開展大范圍的冬小麥干旱預警,以中國北方冬小麥區(qū)為實例,構(gòu)建了土壤水分動態(tài)預報模型,結(jié)合未來10d高精度天氣要素預報、土壤自動水分觀測和冬小麥發(fā)育期觀測數(shù)據(jù),建立了北方冬小麥區(qū)干旱預警系統(tǒng)。利用該系統(tǒng)對2018年4—5月進行逐日的冬小麥干旱預警,對干旱預警產(chǎn)品的分析表明:系統(tǒng)對未來10d土壤相對濕度預報的決定系數(shù)在0.63~0.91之間,均方根誤差在5.6%~18.2%之間,預報時效越近,準確率越高。從不同的干旱等級預測準確率看,對于干旱等級較高的重旱和特旱預報準確率較高,輕旱和中旱的預報準確率略低。該系統(tǒng)基本滿足冬小麥干旱預警需求,對國家級農(nóng)業(yè)氣象部門大范圍農(nóng)業(yè)干旱監(jiān)測和預警業(yè)務是有益的補充。

    Abstract:

    Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters and a threat of food security. It is extremely important to have accurate and timely early warning of drought for prevention and reduction of agricultural disasters. Current method of drought early warning was characterized by weak mechanism, low spatial resolution and lack of crop growth information. A daily crop growth and soil moisture dynamics simulation system using a soil water dynamic model in northern winter wheat zone was constructed. Based on this soil moisture simulation system, a drought early warning system for winter wheat was constructed. Daily drought early warning products from April to May in 2018 were generated by using this warning system. The results showed that forecast accuracy of soil relative moisture in next 10 days was high since its coefficient of determination was 0.63~0.91 and its root mean squared error was 5.6%~18.2%. The closer soil moisture forecast was in time, the more accurate was. Forecast accuracy of drought grades for severe and extreme drought was higher than those of mild and moderate grade. This drought warning system satisfied the needs of drought early warning in national agro-meteorological service department in China. The research result would provide scientific basis for prevention and reduction of agricultural disasters and national drought early warning services.

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何亮,錢者東,靳寧,于強,侯英雨.格點天氣預報數(shù)據(jù)與機理模型耦合的冬小麥干旱預警方法[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2019,50(9):170-176. HE Liang, QIAN Zhedong, JIN Ning, YU Qiang, HOU Yingyu. Drought Early Warning of Winter Wheat Based on Soil Water Dynamic Model Coupled with Grid Weather Forecast Data[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(9):170-176.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-02-15
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-09-10
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