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基于MODIS與WOFOST模型同化的區(qū)域冬小麥成熟期預測
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國家自然科學基金項目(41671418、41471342、41371326)


Regional Winter Wheat Maturity Date Prediction Based on MODIS and WOFOST Model Data Assimilation
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    摘要:

    針對遙感技術只能獲取作物的表征信息、對作物內(nèi)在機理過程變化描述較為困難的問題,引入作物生長模型與遙感數(shù)據(jù)同化進行作物成熟期預測研究。以葉面積指數(shù)(LAI)作為耦合變量,以MODIS LAI(MCD15A3H產(chǎn)品)作為遙感數(shù)據(jù)源,結合2017—2018年實時氣象數(shù)據(jù)以及氣象預報數(shù)據(jù),以2018年5月1日為預報時間節(jié)點,構建LAI歸一化代價函數(shù),采用復合形混合演化算法(Shuffled complex evolution-University of Arizona, SCE-UA)最小化代價函數(shù),優(yōu)化WOFOST作物模型的輸入?yún)?shù),用優(yōu)化后的參數(shù)重新驅(qū)動WOFOST模型逐像元模擬冬小麥生長過程,得到研究區(qū)冬小麥成熟期的預測結果,并使用研究區(qū)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)氣象站點的觀測數(shù)據(jù)進行驗證。結果表明,冬小麥預測開花期、成熟期的均方根誤差(RMSE)分別為2.10、2.48d,預測精度較高。該方法能夠為農(nóng)作物的大區(qū)域成熟期預測提供重要理論基礎。

    Abstract:

    Crop harvest time has an important impact on crop yield and quality. The development and wide application of remote sensing technology provides an effective method for large-area and real-time monitoring of crop growth. However, remote sensing cannot capture changes in its intrinsic mechanism characteristics. Therefore, a framework that assimilated leaf area index (LAI) derived from remote sensing data into crop growth mode was presented to predict the maturity of crops. LAI was used as the coupling variable, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI was used as the remote sensing data source, meteorological data and meteorological forecast data of 2017—2018 were used as weather input of world food studies (WOFOST) crop growth model, May 1st as the predicting date. By means of shuffled complex evolution method developed by the University of Arizona (SCE-UA) algorithm, it was simulated in each pixel in the study area and retrieved the optimal parameters set of this pixel. Then the WOFOST was run by the optimal parameter set to simulate the growth and development of winter wheat and retrieve the maturity-prediction. Verified by the observation data of the agrometeorological sites in the study area, it was demonstrated that the method had substantial accuracy in predicting regional anthesis and maturity date with the root mean square error (RMSE) as 2.10d and 2.48d. The method provided a reference for the maturity prediction of other crops at a regional scale.

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黃健熙,高欣然,黃海,馬鴻元,蘇偉,朱德海.基于MODIS與WOFOST模型同化的區(qū)域冬小麥成熟期預測[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2019,50(9):186-193. HUANG Jianxi, GAO Xinran, HUANG Hai, MA Hongyuan, SU Wei, ZHU Dehai. Regional Winter Wheat Maturity Date Prediction Based on MODIS and WOFOST Model Data Assimilation[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(9):186-193.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-01-26
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-09-10
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