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農(nóng)業(yè)分區(qū)框架下Hargreaves-Samani公式的逐月回歸修正
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高分辨率對地觀測系統(tǒng)重大專項、國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2018YFC1504603)和中國人民財產(chǎn)保險股份有限公司災(zāi)害研究基金項目(2017D24-03)


Regression Correction of Hargreaves-Samani Equation by Monthly under Framework of China’s Agricultural Comprehensive Zoning
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    摘要:

    為驗證中國農(nóng)業(yè)綜合分區(qū)框架下Hargreaves-Samani(HS)公式線性回歸修正方案的適用性,利用中國氣象數(shù)據(jù)網(wǎng)發(fā)布的124個站點1957—2016年的逐月有效日平均氣壓、平均最低氣溫、平均最高氣溫、平均風(fēng)速、平均水汽壓、月總太陽輻射數(shù)據(jù)及站點經(jīng)緯度數(shù)據(jù),首先,分別基于Penman-Monteith(PM)公式和HS公式計算了各站點多年逐月的參考作物需水量ET0-PM和ET0-HS。然后,以ET0-PM為真值,基于1957—2010年的逐月ET0-PM和ET0-HS,利用線性回歸分析方法獲取了中國38個農(nóng)業(yè)管理子區(qū)的HS公式校正系數(shù)a、b,并以2011—2016年為驗證年份,通過比較ET0-HS校正前后的相對誤差變化,驗證了HS公式線性回歸校正方法在中國農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)的適用性,并結(jié)合驗證年份的具體誤差結(jié)果,確定了各農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)HS公式校正系數(shù)a、b的逐月最優(yōu)取值。結(jié)果表明:大部分農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)的大部分月份ET0-PM與ET0-HS的相關(guān)系數(shù)超過0.6,可以進行ET0-HS的回歸校正;回歸校正得到的系數(shù)a存在顯著的季節(jié)變化規(guī)律,系數(shù)b則表現(xiàn)較為平穩(wěn);系數(shù)a、b的大小及變化說明了ET0-PM和ET0-HS彼此之間存在差異,且季節(jié)性明顯;校正前后的ET0-HS均存在不同程度的相對誤差,但校正后的ET0-HS的誤差范圍已經(jīng)顯著縮?。辉诰唧w的驗證應(yīng)用中,校正后的ET0-HS并不完全是最優(yōu)結(jié)果,實踐中系數(shù)a、b的優(yōu)選使用才是最佳方案。本研究驗證的HS公式線性回歸校正方法是實踐中簡便、可行的方案,對大尺度區(qū)域快速獲得較高精度的參考作物需水量具有實際意義和推廣價值。

    Abstract:

    Aiming to verify the applicability of the linear regression correction scheme for Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation under the framework of agricultural comprehensive division of China, by using 124 stations meteorological data from 1957 to 2016 released by China Meteorological Data Service Center, the multiyear reference crop evapotranspiration ET0-PM and ET0-HS were calculated by monthly based on Penman-Monteith (PM) equation and the HS, respectively. Then, taking ET0-PM as the true value, linear regression analysis method was used to collect the monthly correction coefficients a and b of the HS by ET0-PMand ET0-HS from 1957 to 2010 for 38 agricultural management subareas of China. Thirdly, by comparing the relative error changes before and after ET0-HS correction during 2011—2016, the applicability of HS equation linear regression correction method in China’s agricultural areas was verified. Lastly, combined with the specific error results during 2011—2016, the optimal monthly values of the HS correction coefficients a and b in each agricultural area were determined. The results showed that the ET0-PM and ET0-HS had good correlation (more than 0.6) in most months and in most agricultural areas. Therefore, the regression analysis can be carried out. Coefficient a obtained by regression correction had a significant seasonal change, while coefficient bwas relatively stable, which implied that there were obvious seasonal differencing between ET0-PM andET0-HS. There were relative errors for ET0-HS before and after correction in different degrees, but the error range of ET0-HS after correction was significantly reduced. In specific verification applications, ET0-HS after correction was not the best result for all areas in each month. Therefore, the optimization of a and b coefficients was the best scheme in practice. The linear regression correction of the HS was a simple and feasible scheme in practice, which had practical significance and popularization value for rapid acquisition of highprecision reference crop evapotranspiration in large-scale area.

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夏興生,潘耀忠,朱秀芳,張錦水.農(nóng)業(yè)分區(qū)框架下Hargreaves-Samani公式的逐月回歸修正[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2020,51(3):258-267. XIA Xingsheng, PAN Yaozhong, ZHU Xiufang, ZHANG Jinshui. Regression Correction of Hargreaves-Samani Equation by Monthly under Framework of China’s Agricultural Comprehensive Zoning[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(3):258-267.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-07-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-03-10
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