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不同時間尺度下凍融灌區(qū)地下水埋深CAR模型優(yōu)選
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目（51539005、51969024、51669020）、內(nèi)蒙古水利廳重大項目（NSK2017-M1）和內(nèi)蒙古科技廳重大專項（zdzx2018059）


CAR Model Optimization of Groundwater Depth in Freezing-Thawing Irrigation Area under Different Time Scales
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    摘要:

    為提高凍融灌區(qū)地下水埋深的預(yù)測精度，探索不同時間尺度數(shù)據(jù)源對地下水埋深預(yù)測的影響，以河套灌區(qū)永濟灌域為研究區(qū)域，針對地下水埋深在時間序列上表現(xiàn)的滯后性和非線性，建立了不同時間尺度（月、季、年）CAR模型，并進行了不同輸入變量CAR模型的差異性分析。結(jié)果表明：季尺度數(shù)據(jù)源CAR模型擬合效果明顯優(yōu)于月尺度數(shù)據(jù)源CAR模型和年尺度數(shù)據(jù)源CAR模型，擬合效果較好的季尺度數(shù)據(jù)源CAR模型的決定系數(shù)（R2）、Nash-Sutcliffe系數(shù)（Ens）和均方根誤差（RMSE）分別為0.936、0.934和0.046m，較擬合效果較差的月尺度數(shù)據(jù)源CAR模型各項指標(biāo)分別提高了11.30%、11.86%和降低了32.35%。僅考慮凍融期氣溫的CAR模型明顯優(yōu)于考慮氣溫的CAR模型和不考慮氣溫的CAR模型。凍融灌區(qū)最優(yōu)地下水預(yù)測模型為季尺度數(shù)據(jù)源且僅考慮凍融期氣溫的CAR模型，其R2為0.941，Ens為0.940，RMSE為0044m，模擬精度較高。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the influence of different time scales data source on groundwater depth prediction and increase the accuracy of depth of groundwater prediction in the freezing and thawing irrigation area, the multivariate time series (CAR) model with monthly, quarterly and annual data were studied, and the differences, including different time scale data source and different input variables were analyzed to decrease the effects of groundwater hysteresis and nonlinear in Yongji irrigation field, Hetao Irrigation Area. The results showed that the CAR model with quarterly data source was obviously better than that with monthly and annual CAR model. The determination coefficient (R2), the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (Ens) and the rootmeansquare error (RMSE) of the CAR model with quarterly scale data were 0.936, 0.934 and 0.046m, respectively. Compared with the CAR model with monthly scale data, the R2 and Ens were increased by 1130% and 11.86% and RMSE was decreased by 32.35%. Compared with the CAR model which only considered the freezing and thawing temperature, R2 and Ens of the CAR model considering the whole year temperature and CAR model without temperature were decreased by 0.53%, 0.64% and 2.98%, 3.09%, RMSE was increased by 4.55% and 11.36%. The CAR model with quarterly scale data and only the temperature in freezing and thawing period source was the optimal groundwater predictive model in the region, and R2 was 0.941, Ens was 0.940, and RMSE was 0.044m, with high simulation accuracy, which can provide reference for groundwater depth prediction in freezing-thawing irrigation area. 

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李仙岳,崔佳琪,史海濱,孫亞楠,邢進平.不同時間尺度下凍融灌區(qū)地下水埋深CAR模型優(yōu)選[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2020,51(8):247-254. LI Xianyue, CUI Jiaqi, SHI Haibin, SUN Ya’nan, XING Jinping. CAR Model Optimization of Groundwater Depth in Freezing-Thawing Irrigation Area under Different Time Scales[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(8):247-254.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-11-12
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-08-10
  • 出版日期: 2020-08-10