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基于WT-CNN-LSTM的溶解氧含量預(yù)測(cè)模型
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國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2017YFE0122100)和山東省重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2017CXGC0201)


Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Model Based on WT-CNN-LSTM
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    摘要:

    溶解氧(Dissolved oxygen, DO)含量是影響水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖產(chǎn)量的重要因素之一,具有時(shí)序性、不穩(wěn)定性和非線性等特點(diǎn),且其影響因子過多、存在復(fù)雜的耦合關(guān)系,難以實(shí)現(xiàn)精準(zhǔn)預(yù)測(cè)。針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)長(zhǎng)短時(shí)記憶神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(Long shortterm memory, LSTM)預(yù)測(cè)模型易引入冗余數(shù)據(jù),且在訓(xùn)練過長(zhǎng)序列時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)梯度消失現(xiàn)象,從而不能捕捉因子間長(zhǎng)期的依賴性問題,提出了基于小波變換(Wavelet transform, WT)、卷積神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(Convolutional neural network, CNN)和LSTM的溶解氧含量預(yù)測(cè)模型。首先,使用WT降低數(shù)據(jù)噪聲;然后,使用CNN深度挖掘各變量之間的潛在關(guān)系;最后,利用LSTM的時(shí)序性預(yù)測(cè)2h后的水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖溶解氧含量。結(jié)果表明,本文提出的WT-CNN-LSTM模型預(yù)測(cè)效果良好,其平均絕對(duì)誤差、均方根誤差和決定系數(shù)分別為0.138、0.229和0.954,比傳統(tǒng)LSTM模型分別優(yōu)化了28.87%、21.03%和4.61%。

    Abstract:

    Dissolved oxygen (DO) plays an important role in aquaculture. It has the characteristics of changing with time, instability and nonlinearity, and it has too many influence factors with complex coupling relationship, and it is difficult to be predicted accurately. The traditional long shorttime memory neural network (LSTM) is easy to introduce redundant data. And when it deals with long sequences, the gradient disappears so that it cannot capture very long term dependencies. To solve the problems above, the WT-CNN-LSTM prediction model was proposed. In view of the timing and nonlinearity of dissolved oxygen in aquaculture, the LSTM, which was widely used in time series prediction and had excellent performance, was selected to predict the dissolved oxygen value in two hours later. Aiming at the noise generated by environmental factors, human factors and system factors in the process of data collection, the hybrid wavelet transform (WT) was proposed to reduce noise in the data set so as to provide reliable support for the establishment of accurate prediction model. Moreover, due to the complex aquaculture environment, the dissolved oxygen content was affected by a variety of water quality factors and environmental factors. Therefore, the convolutional neural network (CNN) was used to mine and store the potential information between variables and DO in aquaculture. The result showed that WT-CNN-LSTM had good predictive performance. Its mean absolute error, root mean squared error and determination coefficient were 0.138, 0.229 and 0.954, respectively, which were optimized by 28.87%, 21.03% and 4.61% compared with those of the LSTM model. 

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陳英義,方曉敏,梅思遠(yuǎn),于輝輝,楊玲.基于WT-CNN-LSTM的溶解氧含量預(yù)測(cè)模型[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2020,51(10):284-291. CHEN Yingyi, FANG Xiaomin, MEI Siyuan, YU Huihui, YANG Ling. Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Model Based on WT-CNN-LSTM[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(10):284-291.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-01-07
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-10-10
  • 出版日期: 2020-10-10