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基于水足跡的河套灌區(qū)多目標種植結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整與評價
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2018YFC1508705)


Optimization and Evaluation of Multi-objective Planting Structure in Hetao Irrigation District Based on Water Footprint
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    摘要:

    針對黃河水量逐年減少和農(nóng)業(yè)面源污染日趨嚴重等因素導(dǎo)致內(nèi)蒙古河套灌區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)用水短缺、生態(tài)環(huán)境不斷惡化的問題,本文將水足跡概念(藍水足跡、綠水足跡、灰水足跡)引入多目標優(yōu)化模型和多目標決策評價模型,對灌區(qū)有限的水資源進行合理配置。以河套灌區(qū)為例,本文選取小麥、玉米、葵花、瓜類、番茄5種典型作物,從經(jīng)濟、社會、資源以及生態(tài)4個角度對作物的種植結(jié)構(gòu)進行優(yōu)化,并耦合模糊層次分析和TOPSIS法對多種優(yōu)化方案(多目標優(yōu)化方案、單目標優(yōu)化方案、現(xiàn)狀情景方案)進行評估優(yōu)選。結(jié)果表明,在保障糧食作物產(chǎn)量的基本需求下,減少糧食作物小麥、玉米的種植面積,增加經(jīng)濟作物葵花、番茄和瓜類的種植面積,可以達到增加經(jīng)濟收入、保證社會公平性、提高水資源利用效率及減少糧食生產(chǎn)過程中給環(huán)境帶來負面效應(yīng)的目的。并且,評價結(jié)果表明多目標優(yōu)化方案兼顧經(jīng)濟、社會、資源和生態(tài)多方面,優(yōu)化結(jié)果優(yōu)于單目標優(yōu)化結(jié)果和現(xiàn)狀情景。研究可為河套灌區(qū)及類似地區(qū)作物種植結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整提供相應(yīng)的理論依據(jù)和決策支持,助力灌區(qū)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。

    Abstract:

    Agricultural water shortage is serious and ecological environment becomes deteriorating continuously due to the reducing available Yellow River water resources and serious agricultural non-point source pollution in Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia. Based on these problems, the footprint concept was introduced into the multi-objective optimization model and multi-objectives decision evaluation model to allocate the limited water resources rationally. Taking Hetao Irrigation District as an example, the optimal planting structures of five main crops (wheat, corn, sunflowers, tomatoes and melons) were obtained considering the aspects of economy, society, resources and ecology. Meanwhile, multiple optimization schemes (multi-objective condition, single-objective condition and current condition) were evaluated and selected by integrating the FAHP model and TOPSIS model. Results showed that under the basic premise of food crop yield, reducing the planting area of wheat and corn, and increasing the cash crops (sunflowers, tomatoes and melons) were recommended. It can increase economic income, ensure social equity, improve irrigation water use efficiency and reduce the negative environmental effects simultaneously. Furthermore, the evaluation results showed that the multi-objective optimization scheme, taking into account the tradeoffs amongst economic, social, resources and environmental aspects, was better than both the single-objective condition and the current condition. The research result can provide theoretical decision support and promote sustainable development to Hetao Irrigation District and similar irrigation areas.

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郭萍,趙敏,張妍,張效星,張帆.基于水足跡的河套灌區(qū)多目標種植結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整與評價[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2021,52(12):346-357. GUO Ping, ZHAO Min, ZHANG Yan, ZHANG Xiaoxing, ZHANG Fan. Optimization and Evaluation of Multi-objective Planting Structure in Hetao Irrigation District Based on Water Footprint[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2021,52(12):346-357.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-12-22
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-04-27
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