Abstract:Huainan in Anhui Province was selected as study area. The dynamic change characteristics of land use was explored by using land use data of 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2016. And then the future land use patterns were simulated and predicted based on CLUE-S model. The results showed that from 1985 to 2016, the cultivated land area in the study area was decreased by 11.62%;the area percentage of construction land and water body was increased by 7.98 percentage points and 4.29 percentage points, respectively. From 2005 to 2016, the comprehensive dynamic degree was the largest, and it was the stage where the change of each land use type was the strongest, which was 13.46%. The change rate of construction land was the fastest, with land use dynamic index of 5.19%. Land use types mainly changed between cultivated land, water area and construction land. Cultivated land converted to construction land and water area were the dominant land use change types. The area of cultivated land converted to construction land reached 207.61km2, and the newly added water body was mainly distributed in the Panxie mining area. After adding soil quality factor and spatial autocorrelation, the Logistics regression effect of cultivated land and construction land was significantly improved, and the ROC was increased by 0.201 and 0.133, respectively. The main driving factor of cultivated land change was mean annual precipitation, which was negatively correlated with the cultivated land distribution probability;and the main driving force of construction land was GDP. Kappa index of land use simulation was 0.74, indicating that CLUE-S model had good capabilities of land use simulation in study area. On this basis, the CLUE-S model was used to predict the spatial distribution of land use in study area in 2028, 2034 and 2040. There was no significant change in the spatial distribution of land use in the future, and the area change of each land use was relatively stable.
