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基于DSSAT-CERES-Wheat的黃土高原西部春小麥干旱影響研究
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國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2019YFA0606902)、國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(52079114)和外國專家引進(jìn)項(xiàng)目(G20200027071)


Effects of Droughts and Meteorology on Spring Wheat in Western Loess Plateau Based on DSSAT-CERES-Wheat Model
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    為提出有效措施預(yù)防黃土高原西部地區(qū)春小麥生產(chǎn)受到氣象和農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的影響,估算了1961—2018年期間、時(shí)間尺度1~6個(gè)月標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水蒸散指數(shù)(Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI)以及深度0~10cm和深度10~40cm的土壤水分虧缺指數(shù)(Soil moisture deficit index, SMDI),探究了氣象和農(nóng)業(yè)干旱時(shí)空變化規(guī)律;利用DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型模擬了黃土高原西部7個(gè)站點(diǎn)春小麥1961—2018年的生長要素和產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù),分析了其時(shí)空變化規(guī)律;并研究了氣象和農(nóng)業(yè)干旱對春小麥生長過程及產(chǎn)量的影響。結(jié)果表明:以甘肅臨夏站為例,時(shí)間尺度1~6個(gè)月SPEI和SMDI的干濕狀態(tài)總體上一致,SPEI總體呈現(xiàn)干濕交替,深度0~10cm的SMDI以及深度10~40cm的SMDI的變化基本一致,均呈現(xiàn)變濕潤的趨勢。DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型模擬黃土高原西部春小麥生長過程和產(chǎn)量方面的效果良好(決定系數(shù)R2為0.65~0.84);1961—2018年春小麥最大葉面積指數(shù)和地上生物量無明顯變化趨勢,而產(chǎn)量在2005年之后有增加的趨勢。開花期和灌漿期的干旱對春小麥生長過程以及產(chǎn)量的影響更大,SMDI與春小麥生長和產(chǎn)量要素之間的關(guān)系比SPEI更為密切,表明農(nóng)業(yè)干旱對春小麥生長和產(chǎn)量的影響更大,其中深度0~10cm的SMDI比深度10~40cm的SMDI影響程度大。時(shí)間尺度2個(gè)月的深度0~10cm的SMDI是干旱背景下影響春小麥生長和產(chǎn)量的關(guān)鍵時(shí)間尺度。本研究為黃土高原西部春小麥生產(chǎn)應(yīng)對氣象和農(nóng)業(yè)干旱提供了參考。

    Abstract:

    With the global warming, droughts occurred more frequently than before. Droughts have occurred in all major farming areas in China, and spread all over the country. The wheat production in the western Loess Plateau is obviously affected by drought, flood and water conditions, so it is necessary to study its response characteristics under the background of meteorology and agricultural droughts in order to put forward effective measures to prevent agricultural production from being negatively affected by drought. The DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model was combined to simulate spring wheat at seven sites in the western Loess Plateau. The growth factors and yield data from 1961 to 2018 were collected and their temporal and spatial changes were analyzed. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and soil moisture deficit index (SMDI) at the 0~10cm depth and 10~40cm depth at the time scales of 1~6 months were estimated, and the temporal and spatial changes of meteorological and agricultural drought were explored. The effects of drought severity on the growth process and yield of spring wheat were further studied. The results showed that taking Linxia Station in Gansu as an example, the dry and wet status of SPEI and SMDI at the time scale of 1~6 months were generally consistent, SPEI generally showed alternatively wet and dry conditions, and the changes in SMDI at the 0~10cm depth and SMDI at the 10~40cm depth were basically the same, showing a wetter trend. The DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model was effective in simulating the key growth period and yield of spring wheat in the western Loess Plateau (0.65≤R2≤0.84). The maximum leaf area index of spring wheat from 1961 to 2018 and the above-ground biomass had no obvious change trends, but the yield had an increasing trend after 2005. Drought in the jointing and filling stages had greater impacts on the growth process and yield of spring wheat. The relationship between SMDI and spring wheat growth and yield elements was closer than SPEI, indicating that agricultural drought had a greater impact on winter wheat growth and yield. The 2 month SMDI at the 0~10cm depth was a key time scale for showing the effects of drought on spring wheat growth and yields. The research result provided a useful reference for the prevention of meteorological and agricultural drought in spring wheat production on the western Loess Plateau.

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李毅,張思遠(yuǎn),劉慶祝,姬亞東,姚寧,宋小燕.基于DSSAT-CERES-Wheat的黃土高原西部春小麥干旱影響研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2022,53(6):338-348. LI Yi, ZHANG Siyuan, LIU Qingzhu, JI Yadong, YAO Ning, SONG Xiaoyan. Effects of Droughts and Meteorology on Spring Wheat in Western Loess Plateau Based on DSSAT-CERES-Wheat Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2022,53(6):338-348.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-07-13
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-09-27
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