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基于多模型的黑河中游甘臨高地區(qū)土地利用情景模擬
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2017YFE0119100)和中央引導(dǎo)地方科技發(fā)展專項資金項目


Multi-model-based Simulation of Different Landuse Scenarios in Gan-Lin-Gao Area in Middle Reaches of Heihe River
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    摘要:

    混合元胞自動機(jī)(Mixed-cell cellular automata,MCCA)模型改進(jìn)了傳統(tǒng)的元胞自動機(jī)(Cellular automata,CA)模型,基于現(xiàn)實復(fù)雜土地結(jié)構(gòu)引入混合元胞,實現(xiàn)了從定性、靜態(tài)模擬到定量、動態(tài)模擬的跨越。本文首先探究MCCA模型在黑河中游甘臨高地區(qū)(甘州區(qū)、臨澤縣和高臺縣)的適用性;之后分別采用多目標(biāo)線性規(guī)劃(Multiple-objective programming,MOP)模型、普通線性回歸模型預(yù)測得到2035年可持續(xù)發(fā)展(Sustainable development,SUD)情景、基本發(fā)展(Basic development,BAD)情景中不同地類面積數(shù)值,然后將面積輸入MCCA模型中進(jìn)行不同情景的土地利用空間結(jié)構(gòu)可視化,并開展對比研究。結(jié)果表明:各項精度評價指標(biāo)均表明MCCA模型的模擬精度較高,Kappa系數(shù)、混合元胞質(zhì)量系數(shù)(Mixed-cell figure of merit,mcFoM)和平均相對熵(Relative entropy,RE)分別為0.886、0.261和0.508,優(yōu)于基于純凈元胞的斑塊生成土地利用變化模擬(Patch-generating land use simulation model,PLUS)模型,因此MCCA模型適用于研究區(qū)土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)模擬。2035年SUD情景中林地范圍明顯高于BAD情景,生態(tài)效益較BAD情景增速快,建設(shè)用地和耕地適度擴(kuò)張,綜合效益增速較快。該結(jié)果表明耦合MOP和MCCA模型模擬的土地利用優(yōu)化配置方案能夠更好地協(xié)調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境的關(guān)系,既有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展,又能保護(hù)生態(tài)環(huán)境和維持社會穩(wěn)定。

    Abstract:

    The mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA) model improves the traditional cellular automata (CA) model, and introduces mixed cells based on the actual complex land structure, realizing the progress from qualitative and static simulation to quantitative and dynamic simulation. The applicability of the MCCA model in the Gan-Lin-Gao area (Ganzhou District, Linze County and Gaotai County) in the middle reaches of the Heihe River was firstly explored;after that, the multiple-objective programming (MOP) model and the ordinary linear regression model were separately used to predict the area values of different land use types in the sustainable development (SUD) scenario and the basic development (BAD) scenario in 2035, and then the area number was input into the MCCA model to visualize the land use spatial structure of different scenarios, and carry out comparative studies. The results showed that all accuracy evaluation indicators indicated that the simulation accuracy of the MCCA model was relatively high. The Kappa coefficient, mixed-cell figure of merit (mcFoM) and mean relative entropy (RE) were 0.886, 0.261 and 0.508, respectively, which was better than the patch-generating land use simulation model (PLUS) based on pure cells, so the MCCA model was suitable for the simulation of land use structure in the study area. In 2035, the scope of forest land in the SUD scenario was significantly higher than that in the BAD scenario, and its ecological benefits increased faster than that of the BAD scenario, construction land and arable land expand moderately, and the comprehensive benefits increased relatively fast. The results showed that the optimal land use allocation scheme simulated by coupling the MOP and MCCA model can better coordinate the relationship between economy and environment, which was not only conducive to rapid economic development, but also protected the ecological environment and maintains social stability.

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蔣小芳,段翰晨,廖杰,宋翔,薛嫻.基于多模型的黑河中游甘臨高地區(qū)土地利用情景模擬[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報,2022,53(9):178-188. JIANG Xiaofang, DUAN Hanchen, LIAO Jie, SONG Xiang, XUE Xian. Multi-model-based Simulation of Different Landuse Scenarios in Gan-Lin-Gao Area in Middle Reaches of Heihe River[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2022,53(9):178-188.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-17
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-09-10
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