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基于三維水足跡模型的農(nóng)業(yè)用水可持續(xù)性評估
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41871207)


Assessment of Agricultural Water Sustainability Based on 3D Water Footprint Model
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    摘要:

    為探究我國農(nóng)業(yè)用水可持續(xù)狀況,從淡水資源作為一種關(guān)鍵自然資本的角度出發(fā),結(jié)合三維水足跡、降尺度行星邊界和脫鉤分析等方法,計算并分析了31個省級行政區(qū)1998—2020年農(nóng)業(yè)水資源利用的時空變化。結(jié)果表明,我國農(nóng)業(yè)用水狀況整體良好,但區(qū)域間農(nóng)業(yè)水資源利用可持續(xù)狀況差異較大。降水量少或社會經(jīng)濟(jì)用水多的華北、華東和西北地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)水資源供需矛盾較為突出,降水豐腴的西南和華南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)水資源可持續(xù)狀況較好。在居民節(jié)水意識增強(qiáng)和政策約束的情況下,北京、河北、山西和上海的農(nóng)業(yè)用水可持續(xù)狀況呈變好態(tài)勢;在降水年際差異大和農(nóng)業(yè)用水占比變化的影響下,遼寧、江蘇、山東、河南和甘肅的農(nóng)業(yè)用水可持續(xù)狀況呈突變型,存量和流量間占用關(guān)系無明顯變化規(guī)律。浙江表現(xiàn)出最好的農(nóng)業(yè)水-經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系類型,北京則相反;2014年后北京和上海高頻出現(xiàn)了最差的農(nóng)業(yè)水-經(jīng)濟(jì)類型6,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與資源環(huán)境間矛盾愈發(fā)嚴(yán)峻。研究可為農(nóng)業(yè)用水及種植業(yè)規(guī)劃提供參考。

    Abstract:

    To explore the sustainable status of agricultural water withdrawal in China, the spatial and temporal changes of agricultural water use in 31 provincial administrative regions from 1998 to 2020 were calculated and analyzed, at the perspective of freshwater resources as a key natural capital, which combining 3D water footprint, downscaled planetary boundaries and decoupling analysis. The results showed that the overall agricultural water withdrawal in China was good, but the sustainable status of regional agricultural water withdrawal varied greatly. The contradiction between water supply and demand was more prominent in North China, East China and Northwest China, where precipitation was low or social and economic water withdrawal was high, while the sustainable situation of water resources in Southwest China and South China, where precipitation is abundant, was better. Under the influence of residents’ increasing awareness of water conservation and policy constraints, agricultural water sustainability in Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, and Shanghai was becoming better;under the influence of large inter-annual differences in precipitation and changes in the proportion of agricultural water use, agricultural water sustainability in Liaoning, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Gansu was abruptly changing, and there was no obvious pattern of change in the occupancy relationship between stocks and flows. Zhejiang showed the best performance of agricultural water-economy relationship, while Beijing showed the opposite;the worst type of agricultural water-economy 6 emerged in Beijing and Shanghai frequently after 2014. The contradiction between economic development and resources environment was becoming more and more severe. The research results can provide reference for agricultural water use and plantation planning.

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王玉寶,吳楠,張富堯,李鑫,劉榮,殷杰玲.基于三維水足跡模型的農(nóng)業(yè)用水可持續(xù)性評估[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報,2023,54(1):287-295. WANG Yubao, WU Nan, ZHANG Fuyao, LI Xin, LIU Rong, YIN Jieling. Assessment of Agricultural Water Sustainability Based on 3D Water Footprint Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(1):287-295.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-19
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-01-10
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